The Buck Stops...In Tokyo?


By Barry Habib

CTX Mortgage, The Mortgage Market Guide


 

Harry Truman may have coined the phrase "The Buck stops here", but it has been the Japanese, who have slowed the recent decline of the US Dollar.

The US Dollar has lost a significant amount of its value against the Yen and Euro during the past year. How can this affect you? A weaker Dollar may not be a good thing if you plan a trip to Europe or the Far East because it costs more US money to buy foreign goods and services. But while that is not so great for your summer vacation, it can be very helpful to American business. When the Dollar weakens, US goods are more attractive to foreigners because their currency has more buying power in the US. That helps sales of US goods and services. A weaker Dollar also means that American families would see a price benefit in buying domestic products as well. Goods from foreign countries, like automobiles, will effectively cost more because it takes more Dollars to buy the same product. American cars, as an example, gain a price advantage without changing a thing in their actual product. All this makes a very positive impact on the US economy.

While a weaker Dollar is a good thing for the US economy, it has the opposite effect in Japan and Europe. So what do foreign nations do to reverse this? They attempt to prop up the Dollar by buying Dollar based securities. It has been reported that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has purchased hundreds of billions of Dollars during the past year in an effort to buoy the Dollar and halt its slide. They do this via the purchase of US securities like Bills and Notes and Bonds. This added demand for Bonds causes their price to rise, which causes interest rates to decline. This has helped rates remain very low despite strong economic reports, signs for continued strength in the US and a healthy bull market in US stocks.

What's next? While the current situation is close to ideal for the US, it will not last forever. As the US economy grows stronger, the US Dollar will eventually gain strength. A vibrant economy will lead to early signs of inflation, which will cause rates to rise. Higher yields in the US will attract individual foreign investors. This will reduce or eliminate the need for the BOJ to intervene and purchase Dollar based securities. All this could cause rates to move noticeably higher down the road.

For now, enjoy the ride but don't fall asleep at the wheel. Keep your eye on the US Dollar's relationship to foreign currencies and watch for signs of a reversal.

Barry Habib is currently the National Sales Trainer for CTX Mortgage. Barry is also the CEO of the Mortgage Market Guide service, which helps over 7,000 of America's best originators.

Mr. Habib, age 43, has 18 years experience in the mortgage industry. Barry has consistently been recognized as one of America's Top Loan Originators. He has averaged close to $100 million dollars per year in individual production during his 18 years in the industry and is one of very few originators who have surpassed $1.5 billion in individual production over his career. Barry is still an active loan originator.

Barry is regularly featured on the CNBC television network. Additionally, Barry is often featured on NBC, CNN and FOX television networks. Barry is also a contributing editor for CNBC and columnist for Suze Orman. A nationally recognized sales trainer, Mr. Habib has been the keynote speaker for 50 different state Mortgage Banking Associations. Mr. Habib is a licensed member of NASD.

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